Columnist Ogbuagu Anikwe picks out four important lessons for the Labour Party from the recent skewered ANAP public opinion polls.
The major defect of the two most recent public opinion polls on 2023 elections is their problematic polling methods that resulted in skewed data. Despite their shortcoming, they nevertheless should worry the outside challenger, Gov. Peter Obi. Although the first, ANAP Foundation poll, judged Obi’s chances brighter than those of Gov. Bola Tinubu and Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Obi was not the clear winner, based on the gleefully skewered data that it published. Expectedly, both ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) sharply criticized and ridiculed it. For the second poll conducted by ThisDay newspaper, the former Anambra Governor did not make the top two.
ANAP Foundation and ThisDay newspapers are two preeminent organisations that do presidential polling in Nigeria. ANAP, relying on results of its commissioned polls from NOIPolls, says that Peter Obi of the Labour Party is the preeminent frontrunner. ThisDay on the other hand, says Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress is ahead of the others. Both polls put Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples’ Democratic Party in second place. Should Obi’s strategists worry about these widely divergent polling outcomes? In my view, yes and no. And contrary to what most have expressed, the yes and the worry should be more on the favourable ANAP poll than with the negative ThisDay output.
Of the two polls, one can conveniently toss aside the ThisDay poll for one reason. It did not pretend to be scientific, showing neither methodology nor sample population. It gave us no explanations on how the percentages were arrived at. One went away with the impression that these may be mere conjectures from the organisation’s correspondents spread across the states.
Although the ANAP/NOIPolls did give a background to the methodology employed in their project, a major defect was noticeable. By conducting the poll exclusively through phone calls, it is easy to see how none of the candidates became the winner of the polling. The winner, as projected by ANAP Foundation, was not Peter Obi. Obi was in joint second place (at 23 percent) with those who “Refused” to disclose their voting preferences. The winner, on the other hand, were the “Undecided” voters at 29 percent. If we go further to add those who refused to disclose their preferences and others yet to make up their minds, the result is a worrisome 52 percent majority of voters uninterested or hesitant to vote. That is a skewered poll result.
Nevertheless, the ANAP public poll result sends four powerful messages to the presidential candidates whose supporters are each claiming to have won the polls.
Firstly, the ANAP poll gives the impression that both Abubakar and Tinubu may not get the mandatory 25 percent of the votes in old East and Midwest regions. The nine states of the old regions, now reconfigured into southeast and south-south, have become minorities and battleground in our election cycles. However, they are not as powerless as they appear to those who habitually ignore them. Their combined number represents 25 percent of the plurality of votes needed to win presidential elections. This means that if either Atiku or Tinubu fails to win 25 percent of the votes in the two regions combined, and lose in any other lone state outside it, they can never become president. It does not matter if either of them wins Lagos and Kano votes combined.
Secondly, the ANAP poll results tell us that it is too early in the day to determine who the election winner might be. Those who are acting coy, and the undecided (52 percent) hold the aces on who the victory will go to in February 2023. If half of this number (26 percent) decides to vote for any of the frontrunners (including Kwankwaso), the lucky beneficiary will automatically become the winner.
Thirdly, the ANAP poll shows that Nigerians are becoming more conscious of ethnic and religious profiling during elections. This can be good or unwelcome news for Candidate Bola Tinubu who has been most energetic in rousing ethnic and religious feelings to win “at all costs.” Still, his appeal to ethnic and religious biases has yet to gather obvious public support. This may explain why many were not willing to disclose their voting preferences to NOIPolls. Prior to now, a Yoruba voting for Tinubu was not disappointing. So was an Igbo voting for Obi, and a Hausa-Fulani voting for Kwankwaso or Abubakar. The poll result may be saying to us that people are now more self-conscious about wearing religious or ethnic labels in their voting preferences. In other words, no one wants to be a bigot, particularly if their kinfolk parades an obvious disability or incapacity. For one to decide on voting for a candidate with obvious shortcomings, it makes sense to hide one’s voting preferences from pollsters.
The fourth lesson is that all things being equal, the youths may not create the impact that their initial excitement signposted. The ANAP poll did not reflect youth enthusiasm. Rather, it showed that the demographic most ready and willing to vote are the middle-aged and aged voters, unless youths are preponderant in the demographic that refused to disclose their preferences. The fact that the most enthusiastic population are not those in the 18 – 35-year age band must be worrisome to the Labour Party candidate.
A friend of mine took to Facebook the other day to wonder why ObiDients, especially the Igbo supporters among them, suddenly went quiet online. “Suddenly, I no longer read posts from my fantastic Igbo netizens on the Peter Obi presidential quest,” he declared. I tried to rationalize by saying that they retreated to the grassroots for proper legwork that will turn out the votes. It is also possible that Christmas being around the corner was probable cause; people from the Eastern part of Nigeria focus their attention making money and the coordination of travel. I however did not mention Christmas because I understood what he was saying – that ObiDients should not unwittingly embark on actions that give the impression that they are tired, or worse, have lost enthusiasm. The ANAP poll clearly shows that, for all frontrunners, a lot more work remains to accomplish in the field.
One of the problems confronting the parties in the Southeast is how to educate the electorate to vote for two or more parties during each election. Are they capable, for example, of voting for a presidential candidate of one party and then turning around to vote for candidates from other parties? It may be easy for the lettered to do, but majority of voters will find this challenging. This is what worries APC and PDP in the region as they see pretender candidates salivating while clinging tightly to the coattails of Peter Obi in the region.
A second worry is how political desperadoes took strategic positions not only in Labour but also in other parties’ campaigns as well. They are busy barking at or plotting to keep away other capable persons who may want to assist. These praetorian guards may not hurt Abubakar and Tinubu because it is the usual way of Nigerian politics. But for Obi who is relying on inclusiveness and massive support of youth outliers, this is a dangerous situation.
The PDP and APC may have gleefully skewered the ANAP public opinion poll numbers, but they contain important clues that party poll strategists will do well to pay attention.
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